Predicting adult life outcomes from earlier signals: modelling pathways through childhood (Report for HMT, version 1.3)
(October 16, 2006) Leon Feinstein
WBL Discussion Paper 07-02
Link to the full report and Appendix
You need Acrobat Reader installed in order to view this file.
This report describes findings from a project undertaken for HM Treasury in Autumn 2006 assessing the extent of persistence and change in childhood risk of adult outcomes as children pass through childhood and adolescence. We assess the levels of change in risk status and model the implications of this for the assessment of the value and cost of different intervention scenarios.
The starting point for the analysis is the objective of assessing the practicality of early preventative intervention to reduce adult deprivation, childhood risk and the inter-generational persistence of inequality and disadvantage. The policy framework for the analysis is that of progressive universalism, i.e. the objective of providing support and intervention on the basis of need within a universal system recognising the entitlement of all to such support.
In this report we assess the extent to which children move in and out of risk through childhood and model the implications of these movements for the cost effectiveness of different scenarios of intervention.
